China now owns about 45% of the USA’s national debt. This is frightening because China is in direct competition with the USA for Middle east oil - and is the world’s 2nd largest consumer of oil.

All China has to do is tweak the USA economy buy turning in, say, 3%-4% of their treasury notes and this would force US interest rates up - as much as 2% - and lessen US oil consumption.

So China has a very strong hand to play and their main oil supply is - can you guess? --- correct: Iran. Saudi Arabia is solidly with the USA and has too much to loose strategically if they switch to China.

Russia is the world’s 2nd largest oil producer - after Saudi Arabia - and supplies mostly across Eastern Europe. Unlike Middle East oil, Russia’s oil is “sour” crude - high in sulfur - and much more expensive to process to a clean, usable form.

Russia could certainly use a supply of “sweet” crude - low sulfur - such as Iran has. So Russia wants a happy Iran and gleefully gave Iran nuclear reactors, and technological help. This will put a thumb in the eye of China who has no oil and who is a natural enemy of Russia. Saudi Arabia and the other Arab oil producers are solidly in the Western camp and unavailable to Russia.

So the USA is pinched by China and China and Russia are fighting for the hearts and minds of the Mullahs.

And finally, there are no examples I can find where sanctions ever worked. Even South Africa. The So. Africans were driven by two conditions:
(1) The Whites were just under 5% of the population and that % was shrinking quickly along with the growing military strength of the ANC;
(2) Rhodesia had made a smooth nearly bloodless change from minority White rule to co-ruling to Black controlled rule.
So, South Africa went for it.

All sanctions are porous and Iran’s will have open flood gates. Even the 50+ year sanctions against Cuba have proved absolutely nothing.

As with every country under sanction, the government and its pet military get all they need while the population suffers. In North Korea, the population has head a few million dead in recent years while Kim Il Jung and his military eat and live like kings.

What is the answer? I don’t know. It depends on who blinks first, but blockading Iran’s ports and controlling all shipping in and out is an option. Iran can bluster about closing the Straits of Hormuz, but they cannot militarily pull it off.

But we had better make sure China gets oil from somewhere and it will be OK. Russia will rumble and grumble, but will not risk WWIII over this situation. The Russians are NOT ideologues and will not risk their own total annihilation over Iran. It is a power play on Russia’s part, but one they are willing to give up if need be - at least for now.

As an insight, all one has to do is dig a little into the aftermath of the 1982 war between Israel and the PLO in Lebanon. The Reagan Administration was weighing extra heavy on Israel, including forcing Israel to let PLO leadership escape - escorted by French ships!

Gorbachev made overtures to Israel to join the Soviet camp and Begin started talks. This so unnerved Reagan and the Pentagon that suddenly weapons shipments restarted, the $10 billion loan guarantee was immediately approved, a Memorandum of Understanding (military and economic cooperation) went from the ashcan to being signed --- all of these very quickly.

So Russia will play to its strong side. Right now Iran holds the key to crippling China economically and a war clobbereing Iran? Hey, Russia has oil to sell.

Geopolitics is not hard to understand when you look at the obvious and understand the interconnections.

Germany and France had both become peace-loving democracies before they started talking about European Union.  It’s a boneheaded analogy.