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Iran on the brain

After three days of tough talk on Iran at the annual AIPAC conference and a meeting on the subject Wednesday between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Bush, Israelis are again envisioning scenarios of U.S. attack against the Islamic Republic and its assumed nuclear weapons program.

On Tuesday, Jerusalem Post editor-in-chief David Horovitz told me he thinks such a scenario is possible in the sunset of Bush's presidency, partly due to an impression he got when he and a few of other Israeli journalists interviewed Bush in the Oval Office a few weeks ago. On Thursday, Ari Shavit imagined such a scenario is his column in Ha'aretz:

Contemplate, if you will, this wild scenario: In November, after Senator Barack Obama becomes president-elect of the United States, outgoing president George W. Bush inflicts a severe blow on Iran. That could take the form of a naval siege, the flexing of American military muscle, or even an all-out air strike targeting Iran's nuclear program.

Under ordinary circumstances, people would reject out of hand such a wild scenario. The American public does not support the idea of opening a second front in the Middle East, and America's political, military and intelligence establishments are fearful. A military move, even a semi-military one, carried out by an outgoing president would be unprecedented and illegitimate; it would be perceived as the final insane trumpet call of a thoroughly off-the-wall administration with a committed religious outlook.

But these are not ordinary times, and the protagonists involved are not ordinary people.

Is this wishful thinking?

Maybe the Israelis are encouraged by the hawkish talk at AIPAC about Iran by the presumptive major-party presidential nominees. But sounding the right applause lines for a pro-Israel confab in the lead-up to a U.S. presidential election isn't the same as dispatching fighter planes over the skies of Iran in an attack that likely would spark a regional conflagration and a massive retaliatory attack on Israel by Iran's allies in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.

An attack on Iran by a lame-duck president is just not a realistic scenario. The United States lacks the political will, military resources and international consensus for such an act. The sooner Iran's primary target accepts this, the better off Israel will be to figure how to proceed.

Comments RSS Feed Reader Comments

M-Hossein

06/05/08 01:42 PM

we should solve the problems between iran and USA not be angiry with each other.I’m iranian and want to be safe and enjoy with having a good comunicatian with USA.but in politics if a country has no enemy inter problems shows its self then our country an USA want to fallow this bad skill of dirtiness politics. whats your suggestion? Is the worst problem our religion ?
Is God agree that some body kills some body else?
THINK THINK PLEASE think about it.

John McCandless

06/05/08 03:51 PM

Whether it is in Iran or the United States, our governments do not care about us citizens or what we think. They only care about themselves - acquiring more power and making more money for themselves and their friends.

The Military - Industrial Complex is alive and well.

The wealthy get wealthier.

Jim

06/06/08 12:07 AM

Its a ironic that Israel a country with secret nuclear arsenal, with 270 UN resolution condeming it in past 25 years accuses Iran of creating Nukes for war and instigating violence. Its equally ironic that USA, whose troops have killed 150,000 Iraqis in the past 5 years, with a geographical distance of over thousands of kilometers from Iraq is accusing Iran of meddeling in Iraqi affairs while IRAN has the same religion as Iraqis and has been involved closely socially and economically with its neighbour for thousands of years . It is just ridicouous.

Edwin Andrews

06/06/08 11:58 AM

Irony is someone from Britain noting that Israel has had 270 UN resolutions in the past 25 years.  I don’t know the exact number of resolutions or the number of years, but I can assure you that the overemphasis of Israel’s evils is absurd considering the number of evils in the remainder of the world.  Since most of the resolutions have to do with the occupation of the West Bank, I’m sure that Jim would support resolutions against the UK’s occupation of Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland, especially Northern Ireland, not to mention the Falkland Islands and other vestiges of its empire.  Any criticism of Muslim terrorism, mostly blowing up their own?  Nah, that’s just internecine violence and doesn’t involve condemning Israel.  That would be even-handed and we don’t do that in loony Europe.

Dave Reynolds

06/06/08 02:20 PM

Many of us in America want to live in peace with the world but our elected officials betray us.  We do not war with the Iranians or anyone else.  We ony want to raise our kids in a peaceful world.

Ralph

06/06/08 04:19 PM

I’m an American and I feel the same as Jim regarding Israel. Simply pointing out that there are other evils in the world doesn’t lessen the impact, or excuse Israel.  And as usual, any mention at all of the fact that Israel has ignored the UN resolutions, is categorized by as “over emphasis”.

As far as other occupations, I consider them all equally wrong, including the U.S. occupation of Iraq.

And why does Muslim terrorism need to mentioned as a counter balance any time Israel’s policies are discussed? Frankly I don’t see how how one justifies the other.

Just for the record:

“429 resolutions against Israel were passed, and Israel was condemned 321 times...”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_UN_resolutions_concerning_Israel_and_Palestine

Kiki

06/08/08 05:06 PM

i am not from here but I see tat israel is a master of evil bombs every body as long as he is a musli kills them like chickens and regret they have to spend money on thir bullets and think that they can used thwe world by sympathizing with the hoocaust myth. By the way it is totally selfish interest of their own I am sure if israelis believed they can be reliable neighbors they can be in peace for ever like where they are in moroccco or tunisai or iran. To accuse that muslims will terminate them is a myth but it is the reverse which is that israelis want only the termination of their cosins arabs and the religion islam. Do you think if iran is crhristian every thing will stop na

David Sternlight

06/11/08 04:22 PM

Anti-israel and pro-Arab propaganda cannot alter that Iran repeatedly threatens to destroy israel, while all Israel is interested in is stopping the existentially threatening Iranian nuclear weapons program which even the Arab-headed IAEA is now very concerned about. One cannot talk away the threat by the head of State of one member nation of the UN to destroy another UN member state, by resorting to propaganda and obfuscation.

It is the Arabs who have repeatedly tried to destroy Israel and “drive the Jews into the sea” and not vice-versa.

No deliberately trolling pro-Arab, pro-Iranian, anti-Israeli lies and distortions can hide these facts.

If Iran gets the bomb it will lead directly to a new holocaust from which no country and no person will be exempt, given global air circulation patterns.

It is long past time not only to remove the Iranian nuclear capability but also to decapitate the government of a state which threatens to destroy another and matches its weapons development to its rhetoric.

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