JTA: The Global News Service of the Jewish People

Both parties do agree: It wasn’t a “push poll”

By Eric Fingerhut · September 17, 2008

Republican Jewish Coalition executive director Matt Brooks says there was nothing wrong with it, Jewish Democrats say it was full of distortions and half-truths. But everyone does seem to agree on one thing regarding the RJC’s controversial survey which tested negative Barack Obama messages over the weekend: It was not a “push poll.”

Confirming what others had already pointed out, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman told JTA the RJC survey “doesn’t meet the definition of a push poll” because of its large number of questions – 82, according to the RJC.

A push poll, say pollsters, is not really a poll at all, but a brief call intended solely to impart negative information via the form of a poll.

Republican pollster Neil Newhouse agreed with Mellman. He told JTA a true “push poll” would go to tens or hundreds of thousands of voters, while the RJC says it only spoke to 750 Jews in five swing states. He said the message testing that the RJC says it was doing in the poll is something all pollsters do.

Even Mik Moore, who as founder of Jewsvote.org first brought the poll to public attention, said he was willing to concede that the RJC survey did not meet the definition of a “push poll,” but said it had “the effect” of a “push poll” because it upset people by spreading negative information about a candidate.

Brooks also said he objected to the characterization of the poll as a “negative Obama poll,” arguing that the questions dealing with the Democratic presidential candidate were “less than 10 percent” of the survey.

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Jewish voter recounts “push poll”

By Ben Harris · September 17, 2008

The Republican Jewish Coalition is denying that a recent survey was in fact a “push poll” meant to plant nasty ideas about Barack Obama in the minds of Jewish voters. But try telling that to Joelna Marcus, who is convinced the Republican machine is behind the calls. Marcus recounted the phone call she received at her New Jersey home Sunday afternoon in an interview with JTA conducted outside the New York offices of the company that conducted the poll.

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RJC fesses up to involvement in negative Obama poll

By Eric Fingerhut · September 17, 2008

The Republican Jewish Coalition has admitted it sponsored a negative poll about Barack Obama.

Politico reported Tuesday evening that the RJC took responsibility for the phone poll in swing states, which asked voters their response to negative statements about Obama. Those statements included reported praise for him from a leader of the Palestinian terror group Hamas and a friendship early in his career with a pro-Palestinian university professor.

RJC executive director Matt Brooks told the publication that his organization conducted the poll to “understand why Barack Obama continues to have a problem among Jewish voters.”

Brooks denied that the poll was a “push poll” meant to influence Jewish voters, and said it was a traditional survey meant to gauge the opinions of Jewish voters.

A top Jewish Obama supporter slammed the RJC. “Peddling lies and hateful distortions to scare Jewish voters is reprehensible and deeply disrespectful to Jewish Americans,” said Rep. Robert Wexler (D-Fla.).

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Is McCain really up 22 points among Jews in New York? (UPDATED)

By Eric Fingerhut · September 16, 2008

What should you do when a poll contradicts everything you thought you knew about the campaign and the Jewish vote? Some pollsters suggest you might not want to take it too seriously.

A Siena (College) Research Institute survey released Monday has Barack Obama up just five points, 46-41 percent, in New York – suprising enough in a state that Obama is expected to carry easily. More shocking is the poll found John McCain leading the Democrat by 22 points, 54-32 percent, among New York Jews. That’s despite Obama leading McCain nationally in the recent polls of American Jews by about 30 points.

Is that number reliable? First of all, Siena poll spokesman Steven Greenberg said, the Jewish sample size was 77 respondents, which translates to a margin of error of plus or minus 11 points.
GOP pollster Frank Luntz said that margin of error makes the poll “unreliable” and said the “press shouldn’t report it.” He added that McCain is running very well among Jews for a Republican candidate, but that means a possible high-water mark of 40 percent – not a lead on Obama.

One Democratic pollster who did not wish to be identified criticizing another poll also said that only interviewing 77 Jews is a “very small sample size.”

“I wouldn’t make any decisions for a candidate based on 77 interviews,” he said.

But even before examining the Jewish results, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said, the fact that Obama is only leading by five points in the overall poll raises a red flag. He noted that every other non-Siena poll in the state over the last two months has Obama up anywhere from 13-21 points, and believes there must be some kind of “fundamental flaw” in the Siena survey. He added that if one poll differs so significantly from every other poll, there needs to be some explanation for the outlier.

One pollster who did not want to be identified said he believes that Siena made a “fundamental violation of polling procedure” by asking respondents their preference for president at the very end of the survey–after a series of questions about how the candidates rate on issues–instead of near the beginning. The pollster said that such questions, which include queries on such topics as which candidate is more patriotic or has more integrity, are likely to influence a voter’s thinking by the end of the survey.

Greenberg defended the Siena poll by noting that it used a similar sample size in June for Jews, when Obama led 59-21 percent, and in August, when he was up 50-37. But it’s hard to imagine what could have caused Obama to lose 27 points in the Jewish community in just the last three months.

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Political Tidbits: Poll says McCain winning among N.Y. Jews

By Ami Eden · September 16, 2008

• Poll shows John McCain with a big lead among Jews in New York.
• McCain wins big in an unscientific poll of JPOST.com readers.
• The Miami Herald reports on millions of DVDs of a controversial documentary about radical Islam being distributed via newspapers and direct mail to potential voters in swing states.
• Bernard Avishai reflects on Obama and the Jews.
• Babs set to sing for Obama.
• Obama, McCain surrogates debate in Baltimore.
• Joe Lieberman to Las Vegas Jews: I’m a disappointed Democrat.

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Jewish push polling?

By Ami Eden · September 16, 2008

Some Jewish voters claim they have been the target of anti-Obama push polling aimed at Members of the Tribe, according to the folks operating the new pro-Obama Web site: JewsVote.org. The Associated Press reported incidents in Florida and Pittsburgh:

Jewish voters in Florida and at least one other state are being targeted by a telephone survey tying Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama to Palestinian causes, an advocacy group alleged Monday.

The Jewish Council for Education in Research says at least two women in separate states were push polled, or asked questions intended to influence voters while pretending to take a poll, on Sunday afternoon from a caller who said he was from Research Strategies.

Joelna Marcus says she became uncomfortable when the caller asked if she was Jewish, whether she was Orthodox and how often she attends synagogue.

The caller then asked if Marcus would be influenced if she learned that Obama had donated money to the Palestine Liberation Organization. The caller also asked how she would vote if she learned that someone on the Illinois senator’s staff had close ties to Palestine. ...

Deborah Minden, who lives in a predominantly Jewish neighborhood in Pittsburgh received a similar call Sunday afternoon. After asking basic demographic information, Minden, 56, said the caller said, “I’m going to ask you some things about Sen. Obama and you tell me if it would make you more or less likely to vote for him.”

The poller then ticked off a list of accusations including that Obama’s church had made anti-Semitic statements and that Obama had met with Hamas leaders.

Jonathan Cohn, of the New Republic, says he received a similar call. And Politico’s Ben Smith says Jewish readers in Philadelphia and New Jersey say they have also been called.

According to Smith, at least one firm is denying that its the operation behind the calls.

12 Comments | Share This | Barack Obama, Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, polls, Presidential Race

Lieberman: Still an asset in attracting Jewish votes?

By Eric Fingerhut · August 20, 2008

Sure, Joe Lieberman was very popular among Jewish voters in 2000, but would his inclusion on the Republican presidential ticket this year inspire significant numbers of them to jump to the GOP? Jewish McCain supporters say yes, but a recent poll indicates the Connecticut senator might not be much of a draw anymore among his non-Republican co-religionists.

Lieberman had just a 37 percent overall favorability rating in a survey of 800 self-identified American Jews released last month by the dovish J Street organization, with 48 percent expressing disapproval of the now independent senator. And Jim Gerstein – principal of Gerstein Agne Strategic Communiciations, which conducted the poll – noted that a good percentage of that favoribility rating comes from Jewish GOPers, who registered 65 percent approval for Lieberman, compared to just 25 percent among Democrats and 45 percent for independents. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Furthermore, the stats show that older Jews who were enamored at the first Jewish vice presidential candidate in places like Florida aren’t any more favorably disposed to Lieberman – he has the same 37 percent approval rating among Jews over 64 that he receives from the overall population, and a higher disapproval rate of 53 percent. In addition, Orthodox Jews – the most likely denomination of the Jewish community to be Republicans – has a huge 76 percent approval rating for Lieberman, but Reform Jews only give him a 34 percent positive rating.

“The bottom line is Lieberman doesn’t help McCain” among Jews, said Gerstein, because many Jews are upset at Lieberman’s departure from the Democratic Party and strident support for the Iraq war.

National Jewish Democratic Council executive director Ira Forman agrees. “First of all, I’d be very surprised if Lieberman was selected,” said Forman. But if he was, he doubts he has much extra appeal, noting that the Democratic vote for president only rose 1 percent from 1996 to 2000. If Lieberman truly made a difference to Jews, “you would think you’d have seen some difference” with him on the ticket.

But Jewish Republicans say they would be very comfortable with the Connecticut senator as McCain’s running mate, and should help their efforts to bring more Jews over to the GOP side. “I certainly hope he would,” said Fred Zeidman, a Republican Jewish Coalition board member from Houston. “I’d like to believe the Jewish community would embrace him.” Zeidman said he had been on the road campaigning for Jewish votes with Lieberman in Michigan, and noted 300 people had turned out to hear him speak at a Holocaust museum in Detroit.

McCain supporter Gary Erlbaum of Philadelphia, who has financially backed candidates of both parties over the years, said he thinks Lieberman would still be a draw for Jewish voters. “Joe has made friends and lost friends,” he said. “He would be a great asset” in attracting independents and Jews. But Erlbaum doubts Lieberman will be McCain’s pick, since the number of voters it could attract would be outweighed by the alienation of so many conservatives.

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J Street Poll: Obama behind Kerry, Gore and Clinton

By Ami Eden · July 16, 2008

J Street has a new poll out, with plenty to digest about the views of American Jews on Middle East issues.

For now ... here’s our brief about the presidential election. In most cases 60 percent isn’t something to sneeze at, but that’s a double-digit drop from John Kerry – in the same poll in which American Jews gave President Bush a 79-percent disapproval rating:

American Jews are less supportive of Barack Obama than previous Democratic nominees, a new poll found.

The lack of support comes despite overwhelming unhappiness with the Bush administration.

The survey, commissioned by the Washington-based advocacy organization J Street, found that only 58 percent of American Jews said they would definitely vote for Obama, an Illinois senator. Another 4 percent said they were leaning toward the presumptive Democratic nominee.

In contrast, Al Gore and Bill Clinton both drew approximately 80 percent of the Jewish vote in their respective runs for the presidency, while John Kerry garnered about 76 percent in 2004.

Twenty-nine percent of respondents said they would vote for U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), with 3 percent saying they were leaning toward the presumptive GOP nominee. That would represent a higher showing among Jews than the 24 percent President Bush drew in 2004.

The poll, conducted by Gerstein/Agne Strategic Communications and based on interviews with 800 respondents, has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

Even as American Jews appear to be displaying some reservations about Obama, they are highly critical of the current White House.

According to the poll, 90 percent of American Jews believe the country is on the wrong track.

Seventy percent said they strongly disapprove of how the president is handling his job, with another 14 percent saying they somewhat disapprove. Bush scored a disapproval rating of 79 percent of his handling of the Iraq war and 71 percent for his handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

UPDATE: Should have mentioned that these results line up with a Gallup Poll.

UPDATED: Also forgot to mention that Jeremiah Wright registered a high and intense disapproval rating.

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Faith in McCain

By Ami Eden · July 8, 2008

Gallup has new poll data out showing that “religious intensity predicts support for McCain.” Jews are no exception – except that they are.

Only 39% of U.S. Jews report that religion is important in their daily lives, well below the overall national average. Among this smaller group of religious Jews, however, Obama and McCain break even, 45% to 45%. This compares to Obama’s 68% to 26% lead among the majority of Jews for whom religion is not important.

So, yes, like in many other faith groups, Jews who value religion are more likely to back McCain than Jews who don’t. In fact, the gap between religious and non-religious is widest within the Jewish community (Obama won the latter group 68 percent to 26 percent).

At the same time, despite that wide gap, Obama does better with Jews who say religion is important (45%) than he does with white Catholics (37 percent) and white Protestants (27 percent) in that same category.

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Poll: Obama leads in Florida, Pa. & Ohio

By Ami Eden · June 18, 2008

From Quinnipiac:

• Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent
• Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent
• Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent

Click here for more details.

33 Comments | Share This | Barack Obama, Featured, Florida, John McCain, Ohio, Pennsylvania, polls, Presidential Race