Thomas Friedman: Give sanctions, threat of war a chance
Thomas Friedman makes the case for a tough approach on Iran:
For the first time since Iran began enriching uranium that could be used in a nuclear weapon, we have a glimmer of hope for a diplomatic solution to this problem -- as long as we are not too diplomatic, as long as the Iranian regime is made to understand that biting economic sanctions are an absolute certainty and military force by Israel is a live possibility.
The reason we now have a slight chance -- and I really emphasize slight -- for a negotiated deal is because Iran’s nuclear program has always been a survival strategy for Tehran’s ruling clique: what Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert with the Carnegie Endowment, calls “the small cartel of hard-line clerics and nouveau riche Revolutionary Guardsmen who run Iran today.”
After stealing June’s elections, this ruling cartel is now more unpopular and illegitimate than ever. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cannot hold a rally in Tehran without hearing “death to the dictator” chants more than “death to America.” As a result, his government can ill afford real biting sanctions that would make life in Iran not only politically miserable but even more economically miserable -- and his dictatorial clique even more unpopular.
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It is N.K. and Chavez that is also the problem. Iran promised to Chavez all nuclear tech. All one needs is radicals in South America and Middle east with a bomb they can come to the table with and Iran to head a disarmement of nukes world wide. Just as Lybian leader has not changed claiming the Jews killed JFK. People need to wake up and see what they will be up against. N.K. helps radicals and the focus is only on Iran. The more countries with the bomb will make world peace a lot harder. Good book “One point safe” by Leslie and Andrew Cockburn. One bomb too many many with one bomb or more a nightmare.
Doesn’t anyone understand that the Israeli miiitary simply lacks the capability to deliver a decisive attack on Iran’s nuclear porgram? The range is too great, the program is too well dispersed and dug-in, the scientists are too many, and the air defenses are too dense. I have had this conversation with Israeli military and not a single one has contradicted me.
The right-wing of Israel and its allies in the US can only hope is to keep up this charade long enough to panic or stampede the United States into attacking on its own. The consequences for the US would be horrendous: we would lose planes (one exercise has us losing a carrier in the Gulf), face a bloody and costly escalation in Iraq and Afghanistan, and, once the Iranians have finished destroying Persian Gulf oil export facilities, $400 a barrel oil and a world wide economic catastrophe that dwarfs the current Great Depression II.
This is not Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
There are too many ill-informed arm-chair strategists getting off on a romantic idea that does not work in the real world.
If Israel strikes unilaterally, not only the middle east will be in turmoil. The whole muslin world would be united. And their common enemy would be Israel and of course its major backer, the US. Guess what would happen in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan? You just screwed up all effort the US has done in the past 8 years and the death of thousands of our soldiers.
From strategic perspective, Iran would love to see that happen. They would probably be able to get nuclear weapons much faster with Israeli help.
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Ben Packer
09/23/09 01:42 PM
great idea tommy boy. maybe we should go ahead and give them a chance to fire a few missiles at Israel as well. Who knows, maybe they won’t work. maybe its all a bluff. we’ll never know if we don’t give them a chance.
written exactly like someone might write from the comfort of not being in range of the missiles.
and its not like tommy boy not to criticize the Jewish settlements - maybe he’s scared of Yom Kippur on that one. not a good idea to take on the holiest of Jews this time of year!