Tidbits: Predictions on Mitchell, Gillibrand
- The Jerusalem Post's Shmuel Rosner, along with some other pundits, predicts that President Obama and George Mitchell will demand a settlement freeze from Israel, "and not just the removal of illegal outposts": "The fact that Mitchell didn't yet say such thing is not at all surprising since his current trip is a "listening" tour. Demands will come later in the game and with a new Israeli government."
- Sportswriter Will Leitch, writing in The New Republic, looks back at George Mitchell's report on steriods in baseball and says no one should expect much from the new Middle East envoy: "Well, if he does the same job he did with the Report, he'll show up in Gaza, find one guy who fired a weapon, give his name to the press, and--voila, you're welcome, world--declare the Middle East crisis solved. One hopes President Obama is a tougher boss than Commissioner Selig."
- Christians United for Israel chairman John Hagee, at the Washington Post's On Faith blog, praises Obama's campaign promises about Israel and wishes him well: "I am astonished by those who wonder if evangelical Christians, a majority of whom did not vote for Mr. Obama, want to see our 44th President succeed. Of course we do. ... We not only embrace our new President, we pray fervently for his success."
- The new president's nod to "nonbelievers" in his inaugural speech thrilled humanist Jews, reports Richard Greenberg in Washington Jewish Week: "Nonbelievers are the last closeted group," said Rabbi Arthur Blecher of Beth Chai-The Greater Washington Jewish Humanist Congregation. Obama's inclusive choice of words, he added, "was refreshingly forthright, and I got a big kick out of it."
- The National Jewish Democratic Council is asking American Jews to tell President Obama what they think his priorities should be, and hopes to share the results with the president and members of his administration. The form to submit your thoughts is here.
- Jim Besser in The Jewish Week says the new U.S. senator from New York, Kirsten Gillibrand, is going to be eating a lot of kosher chicken in the months ahead as she gets to know the Jewish community: "Gillibrand, a former member of the House representing the mid-Hudson Valley, brings to the job a thin foreign policy resume and a mostly blank slate on the Middle East. The word “Israel” never appears on her official congressional Web site, although she called herself an 'unwavering supporter of the special friendship that exists between the US and Israel' in a 2006 position paper."
- On day three of the Coleman-Franken Senate trial, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports the Coleman campaign's tactics have shifted now that they're trailing: "After he lost the unofficial lead in Minnesota's U.S. Senate recount, Republican Norm Coleman called for an exhaustive review of rejected absentee ballots to see whether they should be counted. But a state elections official testified Wednesday that Coleman pursued a different strategy when he was leading. Deputy Secretary of State Jim Gelbmann said that in December the Coleman camp wouldn't accept 1,346 absentee ballots that county elections officials said were wrongly rejected."
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david singer
01/29/09 09:56 PM
President Obama in his first televised interview - with Arab television station Al-Arabiya - has made his own views known on the Arab-Israel conflict.
Firstly on the issue of a new Arab state being created between Israel and Jordan President Obama stated his commitment to that eventuating but issued this note of warning:
“ QUESTION: Will it still be possible to see a Palestinian state—and you know the contours of it—within the first Obama administration?
THE PRESIDENT: I think it is possible for us to see a Palestinian state—I’m not going to put a time frame on it—that is contiguous, that allows freedom of movement for its people, that allows for trade with other countries, that allows the creation of businesses and commerce so that people have a better life…
…But it is not going to be easy, and that’s why we’ve got George Mitchell going there. This is somebody with extraordinary patience as well as extraordinary skill, and that’s what’s going to be necessary.”
The notion that any such new state should be democratic - as President Bush’s Roadmap stipulated - - has now apparently disappeared from the new President’s vocabulary.
The idea that such a State was just around the corner - as the previous administration had been trumpeting for the last twelve months - was now not even being able to be predicted with confidence by President Obama to occur within the next four years.
Secondly President Obama declared that any such new state would have to be part of an overall resolution of other problems in the Middle East and neighbouring regions:
“I do think that it is impossible for us to think only in terms of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and not think in terms of what’s happening with Syria or Iran or Lebanon or Afghanistan and Pakistan.These things are interrelated.”
Thirdly President Obama negated the idea that the Saudi Peace Plan proposed in 2002 - and offered to Israel on a “take it or leave it “ basis - would be the sought for regional solution that would be supported in its entirety by President Obama:
“QUESTION : Now there is an Arab peace plan, there is a regional aspect to it. And you’ve indicated that. Would there be any shift, a paradigm shift?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, here’s what I think is important. Look at the proposal that was put forth by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. I might not agree with every aspect of the proposal, but it took great courage to put forward something that is as significant as that.
I think that there are ideas across the region of how we might pursue peace.”
How President Obama gets the Saudis - and the Arab League which has adopted the proposal - to ameliorate their plan to meet President Obama’s apparent objections to it in its present form will prove to be one of the most fascinating diplomatic manoeuvres to observe in the coming months and years.
Given that the Saudi proposal contains the same intransigent demands that have characterised the Arabs negotiating stance for the last 42 years, the likelihood of any substantive changes to that proposal to meet President Obama’s declared reservation seems most unlikely to occur.
President Obama did not spell out what other ideas there are across the region in his compelling interview.
Clearly trilateral negotiations between Jordan, Israel and Egypt to divide sovereignty of the West Bank and Gaza between their respective States is one such idea that needs to be vigorously pursued by Mr Mitchell. It alone seems to offer the best chance of improving the lives of the West Bank’s Arab residents by offering them citizenship in an Arab State without requiring them to move from their present homes whilst allowing them once more to return to the Arab fold finally freed from Israel’s occupation or control - the position they last enjoyed between 1948-1967.
The PLO had already signalled its intentions to abandon the Roadmap - and focus on the Saudi Peace Plan as the only game in town - just a few days before President Obama’s appearance on Al-Arabiya. Reuters had reported on 22 January:
“The Palestinian leadership are not ready to return to political negotiations with Israel unless there is a new basis for talks,” the PLO said, without elaborating. It said it wanted to conduct talks on the basis of the Arab peace initiative of 2002 which offers Israel peace and normal relations with all Arab countries in return for withdrawal from all territory captured in the 1967 war.”
This position had first been unveiled two months ago when the Palestinian Authority had taken out full page ads in the Israeli press calling on Israelis to endorse the Saudi plan. The money spent on those ads appears to have had no effect on Israel - or President Obama.
The current Palestinian leadership - itself the issue of much conjecture following the schism between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority - will not get to first base with President Obama if it insists on maintaining this stance.
There are three predictions that one can confidently make in this current uncertain climate whilst George Mitchell’s patience and skill is brought into play:
1. The existing Jewish residents of the West Bank - and the current Arab residents - will continue to copulate and populate. Any call for a “freeze” on natural increases in their respective populations - and the provision of housing and infrastructure to cope with such natural increases - is meaningless.
2. The creation of a 22nd Arab State between Egypt, Israel and Jordan will never eventuate unless the current Arab negotiating position is drastically revised by dropping their demands for sovereignty in all of the West Bank and Gaza and for millions of Arabs to be allowed to emigrate to Israel.
3. George Mitchell will be having lots of appointments, ongoing disappointments and very many more lunches in the region.
Let’s hope he doesn’t suffer from indigestion as he swallows what he is forced to hear.