Is McCain really up 22 points among Jews in New York? (UPDATED)
What should you do when a poll contradicts everything you thought you knew about the campaign and the Jewish vote? Some pollsters suggest you might not want to take it too seriously.
A Siena (College) Research Institute survey released Monday has Barack Obama up just five points, 46-41 percent, in New York – suprising enough in a state that Obama is expected to carry easily. More shocking is the poll found John McCain leading the Democrat by 22 points, 54-32 percent, among New York Jews. That's despite Obama leading McCain nationally in the recent polls of American Jews by about 30 points.
Is that number reliable? First of all, Siena poll spokesman Steven Greenberg said, the Jewish sample size was 77 respondents, which translates to a margin of error of plus or minus 11 points. GOP pollster Frank Luntz said that margin of error makes the poll "unreliable" and said the "press shouldn't report it." He added that McCain is running very well among Jews for a Republican candidate, but that means a possible high-water mark of 40 percent – not a lead on Obama.
One Democratic pollster who did not wish to be identified criticizing another poll also said that only interviewing 77 Jews is a "very small sample size."
"I wouldn't make any decisions for a candidate based on 77 interviews," he said.
But even before examining the Jewish results, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said, the fact that Obama is only leading by five points in the overall poll raises a red flag. He noted that every other non-Siena poll in the state over the last two months has Obama up anywhere from 13-21 points, and believes there must be some kind of "fundamental flaw" in the Siena survey. He added that if one poll differs so significantly from every other poll, there needs to be some explanation for the outlier.
One pollster who did not want to be identified said he believes that Siena made a "fundamental violation of polling procedure" by asking respondents their preference for president at the very end of the survey–after a series of questions about how the candidates rate on issues–instead of near the beginning. The pollster said that such questions, which include queries on such topics as which candidate is more patriotic or has more integrity, are likely to influence a voter's thinking by the end of the survey.
Greenberg defended the Siena poll by noting that it used a similar sample size in June for Jews, when Obama led 59-21 percent, and in August, when he was up 50-37. But it's hard to imagine what could have caused Obama to lose 27 points in the Jewish community in just the last three months.
Share
Facebook
7 Comments
Barack Obama,
John McCain,
New York,
polls,
Presidential Race
Comments RSS Feed Reader Comments
I agree with Greg E. No sane person can look at the background of Obama’s foreign policy advisors and other associates, and think he will defend Israel, if it is attacked. He will let it suffer, and die - while he talks and tries to negotiate - and learns that you cannot negotiate with any radical muslim, including Ahmadinejad.
Nonsense! It is a shame that Jews too often are outright bigots. Why don’t you simply be direct and say that you believe that a black muslim will not protect Israel?
To the nitwit Republicans posting here who believe that drivel . . . . HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH
“But it’s hard to imagine what could have caused Obama to lose 27 points in the Jewish community in just the last three months.”
Hopefully it’s the viral E-mails and blog postings that I am personally posting to make sure that everyone knows about Obama’s open association with racists and anti-Semites of the worst kind. Unlike the smears and urban legends, readers can verify independently that I am telling the truth.
As an example, if I say that Obama endorsed the “prominent racist and anti-Semite Al Sharpton” in April 2007 (the endorsement can be verified from Sharpton’s own Web site), I add that a Google search on Sharpton and “Tawana Brawley” or “Freddy’s Fashion Mart” or “Crown Heights” will allow the reader to see for himself or herself that Sharpton does have a record of inciting hatred against white people and especially Jews.
The anti-Israel material, including calls for divestment, from Obama’s church is hosted at the church’s own Web site and therefore cannot be a fabrication.
Why lie about this loser when the truth is even more devastating??? 
Re: “No sane person can look at the background of Obama’s foreign policy advisors and other associates, and think he will defend Israel, if it is attacked. He will let it suffer, and die”
Which is what he would probably do if the United States was attacked. McCain would fight, and Palin would fight.
Re: “Nonsense! It is a shame that Jews too often are outright bigots. Why don’t you simply be direct and say that you believe that a black muslim will not protect Israel?”
Obama’s not a Black Muslim. He’s a member of a racist but nominally Christian church that prays to Jesus when it isn’t working to destroy Israel or exulting about crying white people. Muslims aren’t allowed to pray to Jesus.
Leave a Comment
To leave a comment, you must first be logged in to JTA. If you are not registered, please click here.
Already a JTA member?
Need to know? Get JTA's free e-newsletters!
Greg E.
09/17/08 06:50 PM
It would seem that Jews in NY have thoughtfully taken the measure of this poseur and decided that he would not come to the defense of Israel if she were attacked by Iran. He would probably just say something like,""I wholeheartedly condemn the violation of Israel’s sovereignty. I think it is important at this point for all sides to show restraint and to stop this arms conflict.”