JTA: The Global News Service of the Jewish People

Is McCain really up 22 points among Jews in New York? (UPDATED)

By Eric Fingerhut · September 16, 2008

What should you do when a poll contradicts everything you thought you knew about the campaign and the Jewish vote? Some pollsters suggest you might not want to take it too seriously.

A Siena (College) Research Institute survey released Monday has Barack Obama up just five points, 46-41 percent, in New York – suprising enough in a state that Obama is expected to carry easily. More shocking is the poll found John McCain leading the Democrat by 22 points, 54-32 percent, among New York Jews. That's despite Obama leading McCain nationally in the recent polls of American Jews by about 30 points.

Is that number reliable? First of all, Siena poll spokesman Steven Greenberg said, the Jewish sample size was 77 respondents, which translates to a margin of error of plus or minus 11 points. GOP pollster Frank Luntz said that margin of error makes the poll "unreliable" and said the "press shouldn't report it." He added that McCain is running very well among Jews for a Republican candidate, but that means a possible high-water mark of 40 percent – not a lead on Obama.

One Democratic pollster who did not wish to be identified criticizing another poll also said that only interviewing 77 Jews is a "very small sample size."

"I wouldn't make any decisions for a candidate based on 77 interviews," he said.

But even before examining the Jewish results, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said, the fact that Obama is only leading by five points in the overall poll raises a red flag. He noted that every other non-Siena poll in the state over the last two months has Obama up anywhere from 13-21 points, and believes there must be some kind of "fundamental flaw" in the Siena survey. He added that if one poll differs so significantly from every other poll, there needs to be some explanation for the outlier.

One pollster who did not want to be identified said he believes that Siena made a "fundamental violation of polling procedure" by asking respondents their preference for president at the very end of the survey–after a series of questions about how the candidates rate on issues–instead of near the beginning. The pollster said that such questions, which include queries on such topics as which candidate is more patriotic or has more integrity, are likely to influence a voter's thinking by the end of the survey.

Greenberg defended the Siena poll by noting that it used a similar sample size in June for Jews, when Obama led 59-21 percent, and in August, when he was up 50-37. But it's hard to imagine what could have caused Obama to lose 27 points in the Jewish community in just the last three months.

7 Comments | Share This | Barack Obama, John McCain, New York, polls, Presidential Race |

Shonda? or Karma? We report - You decide.

By Ron Kampeas · September 16, 2008

Gabriel Nathan Schwartz, a Denver delegate to the Republican Convention in Minneapolis earlier this month, wuz robbed. By a pretty lady who slipped him a mickey in his fancy hotel room. To the tune of $120,000 according to disbelieving cops; Schwartz says it's more in the range of $60,000.

Schwartz won earlier notoriety (one he likely welcomed) when he told a lefty webcast that he'd like Israel to, uh, do to Iran what he no doubt had hoped would happen to him up in the hotel room.

0 Comments | Share This | Iraq, Israel, Republican convention |

Campaigns go head-to-head on Wednesday morning

By Eric Fingerhut · September 16, 2008

Both the Barack Obama and John McCain campaigns will be courting American Jews at the very same time on Wednesday morning.

At 11:15 a.m., JTA has learned that Obama will speak to rabbis around the country on a campaign conference call. Rabbi Sam Gordon, co-chair of Rabbis for Obama, said he believes this is a "truly unprecedented" situation for a presidential candidate to speak to "all American rabbis" at once, and demonstrates how much the Democrat values the role of rabbis. (All rabbis are invited, not just those who are part of Rabbis for Obama.)

Mark Broxmeyer, chair of Jewish outreach for the McCain campaign, said he expected about 30 people to attend Wednesday's 11 a.m. meeting at McCain headquarters in Arlington, Va. The group will include a "wide cross section" of supporters and others who have "expressed interest" in the campaign. The campaign's director of foreign policy and national security, Randy Scheunemann, are among those that will speak at the event and campaign strategy and message will be discussed.

Broxmeyer said Wednesday's briefing is one of a serious of similar events the campaign has sponsored for Jewish leaders, including one scheduled for Thursday in Philadelphia and another earlier this month at the Republican National Convention and in New York. The campaign also brought on a staffer, Jennifer Sutton, a couple months ago to work specifically on Jewish outreach.

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Political Tidbits: Poll says McCain winning among N.Y. Jews

By Ami Eden · September 16, 2008

• Poll shows John McCain with a big lead among Jews in New York.
• McCain wins big in an unscientific poll of JPOST.com readers.
• The Miami Herald reports on millions of DVDs of a controversial documentary about radical Islam being distributed via newspapers and direct mail to potential voters in swing states.
• Bernard Avishai reflects on Obama and the Jews.
• Babs set to sing for Obama.
• Obama, McCain surrogates debate in Baltimore.
• Joe Lieberman to Las Vegas Jews: I'm a disappointed Democrat.

2 Comments | Share This | Barack Obama, Joe Lieberman, John McCain, Maryland, Nevada, polls, Presidential Race |

Jewish push polling?

By Ami Eden · September 16, 2008

Some Jewish voters claim they have been the target of anti-Obama push polling aimed at Members of the Tribe, according to the folks operating the new pro-Obama Web site: JewsVote.org. The Associated Press reported incidents in Florida and Pittsburgh:

Jewish voters in Florida and at least one other state are being targeted by a telephone survey tying Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama to Palestinian causes, an advocacy group alleged Monday.

The Jewish Council for Education in Research says at least two women in separate states were push polled, or asked questions intended to influence voters while pretending to take a poll, on Sunday afternoon from a caller who said he was from Research Strategies.

Joelna Marcus says she became uncomfortable when the caller asked if she was Jewish, whether she was Orthodox and how often she attends synagogue.

The caller then asked if Marcus would be influenced if she learned that Obama had donated money to the Palestine Liberation Organization. The caller also asked how she would vote if she learned that someone on the Illinois senator's staff had close ties to Palestine. ...

Deborah Minden, who lives in a predominantly Jewish neighborhood in Pittsburgh received a similar call Sunday afternoon. After asking basic demographic information, Minden, 56, said the caller said, "I'm going to ask you some things about Sen. Obama and you tell me if it would make you more or less likely to vote for him."

The poller then ticked off a list of accusations including that Obama's church had made anti-Semitic statements and that Obama had met with Hamas leaders.

Jonathan Cohn, of the New Republic, says he received a similar call. And Politico's Ben Smith says Jewish readers in Philadelphia and New Jersey say they have also been called.

According to Smith, at least one firm is denying that its the operation behind the calls.

12 Comments | Share This | Barack Obama, Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, polls, Presidential Race |

McCain campaign to meet with Jewish McCain supporters (UPDATED)

By Eric Fingerhut · September 16, 2008

Top advisers to John McCain will meet with Jewish supporters on Wednesday.

The McCain-Palin 2008 Jewish Advisory Coalition's National Jewish Leadership Executive Forum, at the campaign's Arlington headquarters on Wednesday, will inclue a "national security briefing" from the campaign's director of foreign policy and national security, Randy Scheunemann, and two other top McCain foreign policy advisers, Kori Schake and Richard Fontaine, according to an invitation obtained by JTA. Attendees at the meeting are also scheduled to hear from Jewish Advisory Coalition national chairman Mark Broxmeyer and comunications deputy director Michael Goldfarb about message and strategy.

Broxmeyer said he expected about 30 people to attend Wednesday's meeting, a "wide cross section" of supporters and others who have "expressed interest" in the campaign. The campaign's director of foreign policy and national security, Randy Scheunemann, are among those that will speak at the event and campaign strategy and message will be discussed.

Broxmeyer said Wednesday's briefing is one of a serious of similar events the campaign has sponsored for Jewish leaders, including one scheduled for Thursday in Philadelphia and another earlier this month at the Republican National Convention and in New York. The campaign also brought on a staffer, Jennifer Sutton, a couple months ago to work specifically on Jewish outreach.

0 Comments | Share This | John McCain, Presidential Race |